Tory voters in 7th heaven; Tory MPs in the doldrums

Two key themes have dominated commentary about the current malaise of the Tory party and Cameron's polling.

The first is that David Cameron got it all wrong declaring himself as 'heir to Blair'.

This seemed so right at the time – about a year ago as Dave was cementing his newly won leadership - but it seems that as Blair's time was ending we began to look romantically at TB’s record.

His oratory and media skills were not called spin any more, his ability to read the mood of the people was not called populism, his global stature was not only defined by his relationship with Bush, but also by his heroic status in places like Kosovo and Sierra Leone, his failures in Europe were turned around into how his politics and style were being copied across the continent, and, of course, Northern Ireland was spread liberally alongside all his achievements.

However, a surprise to me, although predicted by many seasoned hacks, was how quickly Blair was forgotten and how his shadow became both a curse and a blessing. As Brown manoeuvres magically (ie using spin) into a position of ‘change, yet more of the same,' all the curse of Blair's shadow seems to have landed on Cameron.

The second, more interestingly, is that the Tories have no real hunger for power.

This is surprising to hear. Remember this is the party that ditches a leader as soon as it fails at one election, compare that to the party that stuck with Kinnock through 3 losses. This is the party that has dominated British politics for the last 100 years and should be galled at 10 years away from the reins.

However, look at the winners and losers of 10 years of Labour and Tory apathy is a little less surprising. Simply put, the people who live in Tory safe seats have done immeasurably better than those living in Labour safe seats. Whilst those in true blue areas have become much richer in the last 10 years, those in the red still are, with their economies stagnating.

Tory safe areas have benefited most from 10 years of Labour government. So what have they got to lose? Especially as Brown will continue to bend over backwards for the private equity kings, support the renewal of trident, be 'tough on terror', build DNA databases by stealth and lower taxes (he did at his last budget and my bet is that, a budget prior to an election, there'll be some clever giving with one hand, to much fanfare, and taking with the other, with few people noticing).

Quite simply, there is no reason for Tory voters to worry about the next election; they've got it in the bag. Good, sound corporate-friendly economics and domestic strong-arm policies that benefit and protect the upper middle classes combined with sufficient progressiveness that keeps the masses from revolting.

For the Tory MPs, however, it is a different matter - they've got everything to worry about. There is no motivation for the ranks to line up behind their inexperienced, naive-looking leader, when instead they can comfortably indulge their political fancies (anti-Europe, small state, lower-taxation, tough on crime), knowing their ever healthier bank balances are in the background.

For those that still have a belief in the good of the Labour party, this is some, if small, comfort that the better party should win the next election. After that I think it will be time for a grand left coalition (with Lib-Dems and possibly the Greens?) to "keep the Tories out for a generation" as Blair so wished. The Tories will get hungry for power and Cameron's carefully crafted journey to the centre (and even over to the centre-left?) will come across as heroic by the excited media after two terms in opposition. Especially as Blair’s shadow will have more benign implications for Cameron than it does now.